Headline shift

Between March and April, sentiment worsened overall. The industry moved from cautious monitoring to broader and more measurable concern, with cost pressure – especially fuel and transport – remaining the dominant issue, and newer concerns emerging around consumer confidence, fuel surcharges, and worsening business conditions.

1. Sample size and respondent mix

Measure March survey April survey  
Event suppliers (60%)  (61.3%) broadly stable
Events  (32%) (45.2%) up
Attractions  (4%)  (9.7%) up
Education/training  (4%)  (9.7%) up
Festivals 0  (19.4%) up
Cultural/heritage 0  (6.5%) up
Rural events not listed  (9.7%) new category

What this means: April had a broader sector spread, not just event suppliers. That likely makes April a slightly wider read on industry confidence.

2. Concern about the crisis and visitor economy

March

  • Very concerned: 16%
  • Somewhat concerned: 40%
  • Uncertain / monitoring: 32%
  • Not yet concerned: 8%
  • No impact expected: 4%

April

  • Very concerned: 35.5%
  • A little concerned: 25.8%
  • Uncertain / monitoring: 22.6%
  • Not yet concerned: 12.9%
  • Don’t expect impact: 3.2%

Change

  • Very concerned more than doubled: 16% → 35.5%
  • Moderate concern fell: 40% → 25.8%
  • Uncertainty fell: 32% → 22.6%

Interpretation: respondents appear to be moving out of the “wait and see” position into a firmer view that the crisis is having consequences.

3. Change in concern since March

April adds a direct trend question:

  • Significantly more concerned: 22.6%
  • Somewhat more concerned: 45.2%

So 67.8% said they were more concerned than before.

That strongly supports the idea that industry sentiment deteriorated over the month.

4. Current impact on business

March

  • Significant impact: 16%
  • Minor impact: 28%
  • Too early to say: 44%
  • No impact yet: 8%
  • No impact and none expected: 4%

April

  • Significant impact: 22.6%
  • Minor impact: 38.7%
  • Too early to say: 29.0%
  • No impact yet: 6.5%
  • No impact and none expected: 3.2%

Change

  • Any impact (significant + minor):
    • March: 44%
    • April: 61.3%
    • +17.3 percentage points
  • Too early to say:
    • March: 44%
    • April: 29.0%
    • -15 points

Interpretation: impact is becoming more visible and measurable, not just anticipated.

5. Has impact worsened?

April asks this directly:

  • Got significantly worse: 16.1%
  • Got a little worse: 58.1%

So 74.2% said the measurable impact had worsened.

That is one of the clearest findings in the April data.

6. Key pattern

In March, the main concern was direct operating cost pressure, especially fuel.

By April, that remained true, but the impact picture had widened:

  • Fuel surcharges became a major new issue.
  • Consumer confidence faltering emerged as a significant demand-side concern.
  • Supply chain / cost pressures increased.
  • Operational disruption like travel insurance and staff travel became relatively less prominent.

So the problem appears to be shifting from immediate disruption risk toward sustained cost inflation and softer demand.

7. Financial outlook

March

For the next 6 months:

  • Increase in costs: 91.7%
  • Halt on recruitment: 8.3%
  • Staff redundancies: 0%

April

  • Financial impact score: 3.34 / 5 weighted average
  • Cost increase levels:
    • 10% increase: 46.7%
    • 25% increase: 23.3%
    • 50% increase: 10%
    • 100% increase: 3.3%
    • Other included 5%, over 30%, and “too early to tell”

Interpretation: March identified cost increases as near-universal. April adds more precision and shows that for many businesses, increases are not trivial:

  • around half report roughly 10%
  • about a third report 25% or more if you include 25%, 50%, 100%, and over 30%

That suggests a material squeeze on margins.

8. Government response: what industry wanted in March vs April

March open-text priorities

Most comments clustered around:

  • Reducing fuel prices / fuel duty / fuel tax
  • Ensuring fuel supply stability
  • Diplomacy / de-escalation
  • Business support
  • Security reassurance and clearer guidance

April structured priorities

  • Reduce VAT on fuel: 83.3%
  • Steady fuel supply available: 70.0%
  • Direct financial support / relief: 40.0%
  • Regular DCMS engagement: 36.7%
  • Energy cost support for off-grid events: 36.7%
  • Clear FCDO travel guidance: 13.3%

Government adequacy in April

  • Not aware of any response:

Interpretation: by April, respondents were no longer just expressing general concern — they were highly specific about what they wanted:

  1. fuel tax/VAT relief
  2. guaranteed fuel availability
  3. direct support
  4. ongoing engagement

And confidence in government response was very low.

9. What respondents want from NOEA

March comments

Themes included:

  • lobby government
  • represent the sector’s collective voice
  • provide updates and guidance
  • communicate impacts clearly

April responses

  • Keep informing Government and DCMS:

Interpretation: there is an overwhelming mandate for NOEA to continue advocacy and representation.

10. Qualitative themes: what changed between surveys

March themes

  • Immediate anxiety around fuel costs
  • Calls for de-escalation
  • Desire for public reassurance on safety
  • Concern about supply shortages
  • Requests for government information and guidance

April themes

  • All costs rising, not just fuel
  • Margins under pressure
  • Bookings slowing, especially later-season/Q4 concern
  • Attendance and spend softening
  • Need for ongoing lobbying, feedback, and practical updates
  • Concern that this could become a longer-term seasonal drag, not just a short-term shock

This indicates the sector’s thinking evolved from shock response to commercial resilience and survival planning.

Overall summary

The biggest differences between the two surveys are:

  1. Concern intensified
    • “Very concerned” rose sharply.
    • Nearly 68%were more concerned in April than before.
  2. Impact became more measurable
    • Businesses reporting current impact rose from 44% to 61.3%.
    • Nearly 74%said impact had worsened.
  3. Cost pressure remained dominant but broadened
    • Fuel stayed the number one issue.
    • April added fuel surcharges, consumer confidence, and wider supply-chain pressure.
  4. Government expectations became more specific
    • Strong priority around fuel VAT/tax reductionand fuel security.
    • Almost no one felt government response had been adequate.
  5. NOEA’s advocacy role became even more important
    • Almost all respondents want NOEA to keep pressing government and DCMS.

One-sentence takeaway

From March to April, the industry shifted from watchful concern about possible disruption to clear evidence of worsening cost-led pressure on business performance, confidence, and forward bookings.